An Insiders Guide To The Presidential Primaries

Editor: elmorty

Introduction

Disclosures: I am a Republican (voted for Bush twice) and a former employee of a Republican Senator.

Right now it is impossible to predict a winner in either primary. Anyone who has studied presidential electoral politics knows that national polls a year before the election are awful predictors of winners and losers. The media and their labeling of top tier and second tier candidates will limit the playing field and fund raising prowess early on will move campaign staff and activists looking for the “electable” candidate. “Star power” or celebrity name recognition will define the polls almost completely this long before the election but give way as fund raising begins and grass roots organizations of other candidates begin to move on the ground. Ultimately, the best indicator of strength is the polling of early primary states. Not just Iowa and New Hampshire but also South Carolina, Nevada, Michigan, and others that will schedule their primaries on February 5th.

Debate performance

Republican post debate outlook: The top tier remains top tier and the second tier fell further behind. With the exception of Mike Huckabee none of the second tier stood out enough to overcome the massive campaign deficit between them and the next tier.

Of the top tier:

Romney- was the biggest winner of the debates. Looking presidential is incredibly significant in the eyes of the public and no one in either party looks as presidential as Romney. Every sixty year old republican woman in America secretly wishes her husband looked like him. He is also by far the most eloquent candidate, delivering talking points more fluently then Bush reads scripted speeches.

Guliani- In these events the top dog really just needs to avoid biting his own tail. Guliani did that well by emphasizing his record on decreasing abortion frequency in New York and dodging his public funding statements fairly adeptly. One major concern with Guliani was that he has historically had trouble staying on message. He did not have that problem during the debate as he continually drove home the significance of national security and re conjuring the stirring images of his leadership on 9/11.

McCain- He may have had terrible execution in the mechanics of his campaign till now but he still knows how to ignite an audience. His “straight talk” statements on the names of immigrants on the Vietnam War memorial and on losing elections rather then wars were among the most memorable lines of the debate. While many are toasting his defeat I think they fail to recognize what McCain is capable of if he can get his campaign team moving and funds coming in.

YouTube democratic debate:

Hillary- Like Giuliani, Hillary avoided taking concrete positions or making promises like the plague. The ball is in her court right now and she is content to hold it and wait for someone to come after her.

Obama- Normally dripping with charisma, Obama looked less comfortable on several answers in this debate. He did defend his Health Care plan adeptly but failed to make any offensive ground in the comparison with Edwards. Ultimately, the argument between the two is a moot point unless Hillary gets into the debate and offers something more tangible then a vague promise of universal health care.

Edwards- Summoning all his souther trial lawyer charm he successfully ducked an effort by the party base to drag him into tough spot on gay marriage. No doubt Hillary and Barak’s urban Yankee Ds are disappointed in his answer but his base in the south will venerate him for it.

Second tier- Richardson and Biden are both clawing their way up but they still seem to be running a campaign for VP.

Personality

Policy positions

Polling data analysis

Categories: Politics